Stay Vigilant

 Thanks for visiting this blog.  I am doing the same work on a a new platform.  You can find me at stayvigilant.substack.com.    Please join me there and ... Stay Vigilant

 There are so many moving parts and these parts are moving quickly rapidly. I endeavor to look at the market through three separate lenses - fundamental, behavioral and catalyst. Each week I look at one category and then pull it together in the last week of the month. However, with the developments in Ukraine (pray4peace) leading to rapid spikes in the commodity complex which affects central bank policy, a lot has happened in the last month.  The biggest deterioration we have seen in our view of the market has been in the Fundamental section. At the start of January, the Fundamentals of the economy and therefore risk assets still looked pretty good. Yes, the economy was set to decline but gradually and from multi-decade highs. Inflation was high but thought to come a bit lower as well so we knew the Fed and other central banks would remove liquidity but there were only about 3 hikes priced in at that time. Everything seemed to be normalizing at a digestible pace. By February, ...